Black Friday-Cyber Monday Sales Forecast to Top $85 Billion
Bain & Company projects 8.75% sales growth over the BFCM weekend, more than double the broader holiday season forecast.
Consumer spending over the Black Friday through Cyber Monday shopping weekend is expected to surpass $85 billion this year, according to a Bain & Company forecast, as more Americans plan to participate in the annual retail event than a year ago.
Bain projects 8.75% sales growth for the Black Friday-Cyber Monday period compared with the same stretch in 2025, a pace that significantly outstrips the firm's overall holiday season growth forecast of 4.5%. The sharper acceleration suggests shoppers are concentrating discretionary spending into the concentrated promotional window rather than spreading purchases across the broader season.
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Consumer participation is also rising. Seven in ten U.S. shoppers — 70% — say they plan to shop on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or both, up from 64% the prior year. The six-percentage-point increase points to widening mainstream adoption of what was once a single-day, in-store phenomenon and has since evolved into a multi-day, heavily digital event.
The divergence between the BFCM growth rate and the full-season rate may reflect ongoing consumer caution about discretionary budgets, with shoppers waiting for the deepest promotional discounts before committing to purchases. Retailers that concentrate marketing and inventory investment around the weekend stand to capture an outsized share of holiday revenue, according to the Bain analysis.
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